The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its second bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of FY24 decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. The RBI also retained FY24 GDP growth forecast at 6.5%, while expects FY24 CPI inflation to be at 5.1%.
08 Jun 2023, 10:36:49 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Indian economy & financial sector stand out as strong & resilient
Indian economy & financial sector stand out as strong & resilient. The domestic macroeconomic fundamentals are strengthening. Current account deficit is expected to have moderated and remain eminently manageable in 2023-24. Th rupee remained stable since January this year and India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $595.1 billion as on June 2: RBI Governor
08 Jun 2023, 10:34:35 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Inflation forecast for FY24 cut to 5.1% from 5.2%
RBI cuts CPI inflation forecast for FY24 to 5.1% from 5.2% earlier. CPI inflation forecast for Q1FY24 cut to 4.6% from 5.1%, while for Q2FY24 it is reduced to 5.2% from 5.4%.
CPI inflation forecast for Q3FY24 and Q4FY24 are retained at 5.4% and 5.2%, respectively.
08 Jun 2023, 10:29:51 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Inflation still remains above the 4% target
Inflation still remains above the 4% target and just being the 2-6% is not enough. Risks to CPI inflation forecast evenly balanced. Goal is to reach the targeted 4% inflation going forward: RBI Governor
08 Jun 2023, 10:22:00 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | CPI inflation for FY24 projected at 5.1%
RBI projects CPI inflation for FY24 at 5.1%.
Q1: 4.6%
Q2: 5.2%
Q3: 5.4%
Q4: 5.2%
08 Jun 2023, 10:21:03 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Real GDP growth FY24 projected at 6.5%
The real GDP growth for FY24 is projected at 6.5%.
Q1: 8%
Q2: 6.5%
Q3: 6%
Q4: 5.7%
08 Jun 2023, 10:13:59 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Inflation to remain above 4% in FY24: RBI Governor Shaktikanata Das
CPI inflation is still above our target of 4% and is expected to remain above it through 2023-24 as per our forecasts: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
08 Jun 2023, 10:11:26 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Repo rate unchanged at 6.5%; Standing Deposit Facility Rate remains at 6.25%
MPC decides to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, Standing Deposit Facility Rate remains at 6.25%. Marginal Standing Facility Rate and Bank Rate unchanged at 6.75%: Governor Shaktikanta Das
08 Jun 2023, 10:07:10 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live: MPC decided to keep policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5%
RBI MPC decides to keep policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5%.
08 Jun 2023, 10:03:33 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | RBI Governor begins his policy statement
The Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das begins his monetart policy statement for June.
08 Jun 2023, 09:59:31 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | India's currency in circulation continues to decline post RBI currency withdrawal move
India's currency in circulation fell for a second week in a row after the central bank removed the largest denomination note in May, urging citizens to deposit it with different banks in an effort to support lender deposits.
The amount of money in circulation decreased by 272.8 billion rupees ($3.30 billion) during the week ending June 2, according to figures released late on Wednesday by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the week ending May 26, it decreased by 364.9 billion rupees. Read full report here
08 Jun 2023, 09:49:02 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Kanika Pasricha, Economist, Standard Chartered Bank
We expect a prolonged pause on rates and keeping a close eye on key risks to inflation - weather conditions, domestic and global economic growth and the trend in commodity prices going ahead.
08 Jun 2023, 09:38:02 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Jigar Trivedi, Senior Analyst - Currencies & Commodities, Reliance Securities
The markets may have already factored in a status quo from RBI and the US Federal Reserve in June. So, the major impact on the markets will be minimal and currencies will look to data and fundamentals and move accordingly. The Rupee and the Dollar could remain range bound.
08 Jun 2023, 09:34:31 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Ramani Sastri, Chairman and MD, Sterling Developers
India’s housing sector is witnessing a strong rebound in the recent past driven by various factors such as affordability, lifestyle upgradation and aspiration of customers to own homes and we see this up-cycle continuing in 2023 fuelled by both end-user and investor interest. While the RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged will unlikely have an immediate impact on homebuyers, it does offer some stability to the real estate sector.
Hence, in such a context, another repo rate hike by the RBI will not augur well for the real estate sector as home loan interest rates are already at a higher level. Any further increase in policy rates means that interest rates on home loans may hit an all-time high and touch almost double-digit, which could have a substantial impact on buyer sentiments and affordability, which in turn can curtail demand. Another hike will lead to even higher borrowing costs for developers too.
Hence, we expect a continuation of existing policy rates through 2023 and undoubtedly, a further reduction in interest rates in the near future would be preferred to bolster overall market confidence and make it more enticing for home buyers.
08 Jun 2023, 09:21:56 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Sensex, Nifty open flat ahead of RBI Policy outcome
The Indian benchmark equity indices opened flat ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome. The Sensex gained 57.38 points, or 0.09%, to trade 63,200.34, and the Nifty was up 18.80 points or 0.1% at 18,745.20. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 09:14:05 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Rupee opens 4 paise lower at 82.59/$ ahead of RBI Policy
The Indian rupee opened paise lower against the US dollar on Thursday ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy announcement and decision on interest rates. Weak Asian currencies also pressurized the local rupee. The rupee opened at 82.59 a dollar against the previous close of 82.55. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 08:49:47 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | TCS to HCL Tech: Why you should buy IT stocks before RBI MPC meeting outcome
This RBI monetary policy outcome may fuel Indian stock market to start fresh leg of rally in near term as Nifty has already breached its 18,650 hurled on Wednesday. Analysts advised long term positional investors to start accumulating IT stocks for long term as quality IT stocks are available at highly discounted price. However, they predicted that fresh rally in Indian IT stocks would start from the large-cap segment followed by mid-cap and small-cap IT stocks. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 08:42:27 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Pause in rate hike, upgrade in GDP projection likely: SBI Research
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is again expected to keep the repo rate unchanged and will go for a “prolonged pause" in its bi-monthly monetary policy. The central bank is likely to downgrade inflation projections for FY24 and a possibility of a GDP growth upgrade, said SBI Research in a report. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 08:30:06 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | What has changed since the last RBI policy?
Since the last policy, RBI will be evaluating trends in inflation, monsoon and sowing, changes in oil prices, movement of high frequency indicators and global developments.
Inflation: Most recent CPI print shows that retail inflation has fallen to 18-month low of 4.7% in April 2023, below RBI’s upper tolerance limit, as compared to 5.7% in March 2023.
GDP Growth: India’s GDP growth for FY23 is estimated at 7%, as per advanced estimates of National Income for 2022-23 revealed by the National Statistical Office (NSO). RBI has estimated GDP growth of 6.5% for fiscal 2023-2024.
Oil prices: The crude oil prices have fallen since April policy. International crude oil price was at $85.1 per barrel in April, and since then it has fallen to around $77 per barrel.
High-frequency indicators: Manufacturing activity picked up pace in May as Manufacturing PMI was at 58.7 versus 57.2 in April. Service sector growth showed some moderation as PMI was off its peak of 62 in April to 61.2 in May.
GST Collection: GST Collection was at ₹1.6 lakh crore for May as compared with an all-time high of ₹1.9 lakh crore in April.
System liquidity: On an average, system liquidity surplus was at ₹0.72 lakh crore in May as against April’s average system liquidity surplus of ₹1.5 lakh crore.
08 Jun 2023, 08:21:53 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI
We expect the RBI to pause in June policy
The stance could continue to be withdrawal of accommodation, as liquidity has turned into significant surplus mode
Inflation estimates for FY24 could be downgraded
Possibility of growth upgrade for FY24 looks imminent
08 Jun 2023, 08:19:17 AM IST
RBI Monetary Policy Live | Indranil Pan, Chief Economist, Yes Bank
The evolving growth-inflation mix indicates a continued pause from the RBI in June. The RBI had paused in April, clearly indicating that the markets should not construe the same as a “pivot". The upside surprise seen in the latest released GDP numbers Q4FY23 show that the economy is resilient even as private consumption expenditure remains on the slow track. YoY headline CPI inflation has come down and we anticipate the softening bias to continue. However, the more significant reason for the reduction in the CPI is the high base of last year. Price pressures continue to exist, as is also evident in a 8.1% mom jump in the vegetable prices for May. On the other hand, there is still a hawkish tilt to the US Fed policy and AE policy interest rates are expected to continue to rise, given that respective inflation levels are still quite high compared to the targets.
While we expect the RBI to stay on a pause in June, the next move is surely a cut. However, we might have to wait till around the February 2024 MPC meeting for this cut.
08 Jun 2023, 07:55:17 AM IST
How useful are RBI’s inflation surveys?
When the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates last year, its aim was to curb inflation. The key link in the transmission from rate hikes to lower prices is inflation expectations: households and corporates have to be convinced that inflation will be brought under control, so that they are motivated to consume and invest. To this end, the RBI conducts a bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH), in which it asks a sample of households about their views on current and future price movements. Unfortunately, the results have not served this purpose very well. Continue reading here
08 Jun 2023, 07:49:03 AM IST
RBI rate pause to benefit realty sector beyond just lower home loan borrowing costs, says Anuj Puri
If, as is widely expected, the RBI keeps the repo rate unchanged tomorrow, it will benefit the Indian real estate sector beyond just lower home loan borrowing costs. It also implies a boost to construction and infrastructure - a steady repo rate maintains a favourable lending environment for developers, who can access loans for construction at stable interest rates, thus encouraging them to undertake new projects. Stability in the repo rate also signals consistency and predictability in monetary policy, which will in turn boost investor confidence. Moreover, it will help maintain liquidity in the banking system, making more funds available to lend to individuals and businesses, says Anuj Puri, Chairman, ANAROCK Group
08 Jun 2023, 07:44:42 AM IST
RBI MPC meeting June 2023: How to tweak your stock portfolio — explained
On how stock market will react if there is any interest rate cut hint from the RBI in upcoming MPC meeting, Chandan Taparia, Derivative & Technical Analyst at Motilal Oswal said, "FIIs are awaiting final outcome of the RBI MPC meeting as US dollar has surged to record two month high after the uncertainty on US Fed rate hike after the better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report in the US. Any hint of interest rate cut in future may lead to bulk buying by both DIIs and FIIs and we may witness a fresh boomerang on Dalal Street." However, Motilal Oswal expert maintained that market has already discounted the outcome of status quo on interest rate from the upcoming RBI MPC meeting. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 07:42:34 AM IST
All eyes on RBI governor; status quo on rates likely
Asset prices moving in a trend will continue to move in the direction of the trend unless acted upon by a disagreeable surprise. Going into the 23 April Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the bond market had doubts about whether the trend of policy rate hikes was over just yet. After all, despite six consecutive policy rate hikes—amounting to 250 bps of policy tightening, headline consumer price inflation (CPI) was still hovering above 6%. While consensus was that yields had more or less peaked, markets had pencilled in a final 25 bps rate hike in what was to be the MPC’s final strike. So, when the MPC opted for a status quo policy in the April meeting, it surprised the market, albeit a pleasant one. Read more
08 Jun 2023, 07:30:29 AM IST
Sonam Srivastava, Founder, Wright Research
Ahead of the RBI bi-monthly monetary policy review, Indian stock indices, including the Nifty, have been trading steady. Most analysts anticipate that the RBI will maintain the repo rate at 6.5% due to declining inflation, currently at an 18-month low. This comes after a period of consistent tightening of monetary policy since mid-2022, which has significantly lowered inflation. Despite a pause in April, the RBI has raised the repo rate cumulatively by 250 basis points since May 2022 to combat inflation and that puts pressure on economic growth. Given the absence of a clear market trend, investors and traders are advised to closely monitor market developments and adapt their strategies as necessary.
08 Jun 2023, 07:26:23 AM IST
Sreeram Ramdas, Vice President, Green Portfolio PMS
Nifty is already pricing in an interest rate pause and bullish comments on the economy from the governor. The stump in inflation and slowdown in overall food inflation will further add glimmer to the meeting. We expect markets to act positively and being supportive for Autos and IT’s in the Nifty index. The financials, which has 37% weightage in the Nifty, have already seen a sharp rally in anticipation of bright economic prospects, and we do not expect a significant move here.
08 Jun 2023, 07:24:43 AM IST
Could RBI signal the end of the tightening cycle?
Nuvama Institutional Equities noted that the setting is April's CPI inflation of 5%, which is expected to slow down even further, in contrast to the real GDP growth that was a welcome surprise in Q4FY23. The combination of indications allows RBI room to keep an eye on the incoming data before changing directions. It might now change from 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' if inflation continues to moderate, believes the brokerage. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 07:22:28 AM IST
This is why governor Shaktikanta Das may not be able to cut repo rate just yet
The chances of a rate cut are low in this policy, as the majority of experts believe RBI will keep the repo rate unchanged and focus on the impact of an intense rate hike cycle across industries. Also, the latest economic-inflation mix hints at a second status quo. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 06:57:38 AM IST
Rate-pause may continue on GDP print, softer inflation. Key indicators to watch
The review by the six-member MPC led by Das will likely indicate the course RBI will adopt in the remainder of the financial year as it seeks to strike a fine balance between maintaining growth and keeping inflation within the tolerance zone of 4-6 per cent amid global headwinds. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 06:40:37 AM IST
This is how Nifty may perform after the central bank announces its decision
Nifty has broadly performed on a bullish note ahead of RBI's monetary policy scheduled on Thursday. The benchmark is currently near the 18,730 level. But in the past five trading sessions, this 50-scrip index has gained by more than 1%. With RBI's policy taking the limelight, Nifty and broadly the market sentiment is looking positive on June 8. Expectations are that Nifty may soon cross its lifetime high of 18,887.60, whether RBI's policy will do the trick will be keenly watched. Read here
08 Jun 2023, 06:38:33 AM IST
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd
The Nifty continues to demonstrate its strong bullish momentum, while the Banknifty is exhibiting some underperformance in anticipation of the RBI policy. Although the market is currently pricing in an unchanged policy, there is speculation that the governor's comments might adopt a hawkish tone due to robust economic growth coupled with persistent inflation concerns. Additionally, there are emerging concerns regarding potential delays in the monsoon season, which could be addressed in the governor's commentary and potentially lead to some profit booking in the market.
However, despite these potential headwinds, the overall market structure remains bullish, and any corrections that may occur are viewed as buying opportunities. If the Nifty manages to surpass the 18,700 level, it is likely to pave the way for a further move toward its all-time high of 18,888. On the downside, key support levels to watch are 18,450 and 18,180.
08 Jun 2023, 06:10:26 AM IST
Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India
In its upcoming MPC meeting, we expect the RBI to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, continuing with a pause, as inflation, supported by statistical base, has moderated, and will likely remain so. This provides enough support for the RBI to keep its key policy rate unchanged.
In terms of real estate, the implication of the rate hike on home loan demand has been minimal so far. Residential demand has remained upbeat indicating strong consumer preference towards home ownership despite high interest rate and inflation over the last one year. However, with economic growth facing headwinds from global slowdown, and the full impact of the high interest rates yet to be seen, we remain cautious of the impact on the housing market.
08 Jun 2023, 06:00:35 AM IST
Sonal Badhan, Economist, Bank of Baroda
In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, we expect MPC to remain on hold and keep the rates unchanged. We also expect no change in stance or any future rate hikes. In fact, we anticipate the earliest possible rate cut in October 2023. Downward revision to RBI’s CPI forecast for FY24 can be expected, by 10-20 bps. However GDP forecasts are estimated to remain unchanged.
08 Jun 2023, 06:00:36 AM IST
What has changed since the last RBI policy?
Since the last policy, RBI will be evaluating trends in inflation, monsoon and sowing, changes in oil prices, movement of high frequency indicators and global developments.
Inflation: Most recent CPI print shows that retail inflation has fallen to 18-month low of 4.7% in April 2023, below RBI’s upper tolerance limit, as compared to 5.7% in March 2023.
GDP Growth: India’s GDP growth for FY23 is estimated at 7%, as per advanced estimates of National Income for 2022-23 revealed by the National Statistical Office (NSO). RBI has estimated GDP growth of 6.5% for fiscal 2023-2024.
Oil prices: The crude oil prices have fallen since April policy. International crude oil price was at $85.1 per barrel in April, and since then it has fallen to around $77 per barrel.
High-frequency indicators: Manufacturing activity picked up pace in May as Manufacturing PMI was at 58.7 versus 57.2 in April. Service sector growth showed some moderation as PMI was off its peak of 62 in April to 61.2 in May.
GST Collection: GST Collection was at ₹1.6 lakh crore for May as compared with an all-time high of ₹1.9 lakh crore in April.
System liquidity: On an average, system liquidity surplus was at ₹0.72 lakh crore in May as against April’s average system liquidity surplus of ₹1.5 lakh crore.
08 Jun 2023, 06:00:36 AM IST
Repo rates already up 250 bps since May 2022
The RBI has increased repo rates by 250 bps since May 2022. It said that the decision to pause the April policy meet was a temporary arrangement implying the future trajectory would be aligned with the course of data emerging from various sources/points, domestic as well as global.
08 Jun 2023, 06:00:36 AM IST
RBI paused rate hike cycle in April policy
In the April 2023 monetary policy, RBI kept the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.50%. Subsequently, it also kept the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate unchanged at 6.25%, while the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate were also unchanged at 6.75%.
08 Jun 2023, 06:00:36 AM IST
RBI to announce monetary policy decision today
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its policy decision today. The second bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of FY24 was held from June 6 to 8 and its outcome will be announced on June 8. The rate-setting panel headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das is largely expected to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%.
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